Geography of Global Conflict

1 Daniel T. Eisert GEOG-2034 2 – Differences GEOG-2034: Geography of Global Conflict September 3, 2019 (Week 2) Class Business Current event due next week. Rebuilding It takes 15 to 27 years to get a country back to when it was before conflict. 85% of the world’s 15-24 year olds are in the developing world. The demand for water has doubled in the last 50 years. 90% of the global diseases are in low- and middle-income countries. Only 1% of the ~1,200 new drugs that come out every year address tropical diseases. Conflicts: - Post-conflict recovery - Food - Water - Economic wealth Al-Shabab —“Mujahedeen Youth Movement” Al-Shabab controls much of southern Somalia. - The U.N. was in Somalia in the 1990s to pass out food to the locals. - The government was weak and not successful. - The warlords made a government. Al-Shabab separated and wanted to form an Islamic government. - By 2008, the U.S. State Department designated Al-Shabab as a terrorist organization. This allows our government to take actions against the group. For example, the treasury won’t give money to them/international groups who help them; airlines who fly them won’t be able land in the United States. - They more than doubled in territory control between 2009 and 2010. - In 2012, Al-Shabab joined Al-Queda. This ‘expands their audience.’ They allied with AQ and expanded beyond Somalia to Kenya and Uganda. They expanded their training. - September 21, 2013—the military moved in after a major terrorist attack at a Nairobi Mall (very upscale mall in Kenya). It is very popular with foreign tourists and local Westerners (embassies, international schools, etc.). Al- Shabab rented many storefronts to stash their weapons. 67 people were killed, and many were wounded. - Many of the attackers were from the West: six Americans, a Canadian, a Swede, a Fin, and a British national as well as two Syrians and a Dagestani. - Many more attacks took place in the coming years continuing through the present day. Al-Queda continued to assist in these attacks. - The government controls the major cities, but the terrorists control much of the countryside (this is similar in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.). - While in prison, the terrorists radicalize the prisoners. Foundations of the Conflict: Young people without a proper civil society (no education, no jobs, etc.) have resorted to terrorism since they have nothing else to do. This is very common in many other developing countries. Refugees are even fleeing to Eritrea and Yemen (also Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, others).

GEO | 2034 | Geography of Global Conflict | lecture notes | 1 Daniel T. Eisert GEOG-2034 2

1 Daniel T. Eisert GEOG-2034 - Hamas steals electricity; the average home in Gaza has ~4 hours of electricity per day; their leaders have it all day. - Most Gaza citizens are dissatisfied with Hamas. o 50% current unemployment. o Now ISIS has a foothold in Gaza. o Arab nations are trying to get involved in the peace process. The Arab nations want Israel on their side against Iran (the greater threat in the Middle East). o The Palestinian Authority doesn’t trust the U.S. for peace talks. Diagram : Area A = full Palestinian control, B = Palestinian control, Israel security, C = Israel control  see the hardships with establishing separate nation-states? Summer of 2014: 50-Day Gaza War - 10,000 buildings destroyed. ~485,000 peopled displaced in Gaza. 1,867 people killed. - 2014 – Lots of Hamas aggression; rockets were fired – social media driven on both sides. The rockets weren’t that accurate, so some of the rockets stayed and landed in Gaza. - Terror tunnels were made from Gaza to Israel. - Israel pours concrete in massive trenches along the border to stop these tunnels. Each tunnel costs about $3 million; the IDF has found 30 tunnels; this is $90 million that Hamas could have invested in the welfare of its people. - Hamas was using U.N. schools for tunnel entrances and weapons stashes. - Hamas was using human shields. - As a result, Israel is building a massive barrier into the sea to infiltrate Hamas. Africa: Continuous Conflict Many started against the imperialist countries, but they have now continued through tribal/ethnic conflicts. Today, about half of the African nations are either currently seeing conflict/war/battle or have just stopped seeing it. Lots of poor economies; China and other countries are trying to bring economic development which has opened lots of other issues. South Africa – tribal conflict Botswana – spread from South Africa due to strict laws, so criminals cross the border. Cuba Cuba is on the American terrorist list. 1959 ~ the Cuban Revolution - Castro overthrew the old government (which was more friendly to America) - Cuba was a nice vacation spot and nice business venture/trader. New Government - Bay of Pigs Invasion (1962) tried to overthrow Castro (who was still 1 Daniel T. Eisert GEOG-2034 popular at the time). - Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) – in response to the Bay of Pigs invasion, Cuba allowed the Soviets to put missiles in Cuba. U.S. navy ships were intercepting Russian ships to Cuba. From here came the hot line (phone line from U.S. to USSR). We were able to get the Soviets to pull missiles out of Cuba and we pulled our missiles out of Turkey. - U.S. government thought about coordinating with the Mafia to get Castro. The Mafia owned lots of the vacation spots. - Castro killed +20,000 citizens. Why do we hate Cuba? - They have spies in the U.S. Lots of the foreign spies for the U.S. was actually for Cuba. - Cuba harbors fugitives. Lots of Americans who have committed crimes (some on the FBI most wanted) have been given refugee status in Cuba. - Cuba attacks U.S. foreign policy. Cuba is currently aligned with Venezuela and Nicaragua (supports anti-U.S. regimes). - Cuba is anti-human rights, anti-press, and anti-private property. Problem: There are lots of Cuban ex-patriots in Florida. Today - Average salary is $20/month in Cuba. - 5% of citizens have Internet. Obama opened up Cuba more. Trump is starting to restrict that again. The money tourists put into Cuba goes straight to the government. The U.S. reopened an embassy. Diplomats were having health problems  Cuban Sonic Attacks against the U.S. Embassy possibly (or Russian) either to cause health problems or trying to collect intelligence on the U.S. The Canadians were affected too.

GEO | 2034 | Geography of Global Conflict | lecture notes | 1 Daniel T. Eisert GEOG-2034 -

1 Daniel T. Eisert GEOG-2034 1 – Current Conflicts GEOG-2034: Geography of Global Conflict August 27, 2019 (Week 1) Class Business Current event due next week. Arab Spring We are on the Saudi/Israel side against Iran. - ISIS captured a Syrian passport office to make real passports and infiltrate refugees. - ISIS is connected via the Internet. The Caliphate is gone, but their Internet presence is still there. - Red Hill, VA (Muslim/Shari’a enclave) - Increasing unfavourability of Muslims in Europe; E.U. has sued some European countries because they’ve refused to take refugees. Conflict Conflict occurs when two or more parties attempt to pursue their interests (which are perceived as mutually incompatible) by directly or indirectly seeking to reduce the other party’s capacity to achieve its goals. Historically, conflict was conducted very violently between professional soldiers by major empires. Today, it isn’t necessarily army vs. army in a field. Nation-States An entity with a defined territory on which it exercises internal and external sovereignty thus is neither dependent on nor subject to any other power or state. US/USSR - The USSR perceived itself at perpetual war with capitalism. - The USSR viewed left-wing, but non-communist, groups in other countries as an even worse enemy of itself than the capitalist one. - The USSR would use controllable Marxists in the capitalist war as allies. - Soviet aggression was not aligned with the views of the Russian people or with economic reality but rooted in historic Russian nationalism and neurosis. - The Soviet government exhibited objective/accurate pictures of internal and external reality. The above can also be said about ISIS today. International Organizations - U.N.  ineffective? Saudi’s on woman’s committee, Syria was on human rights committee, increased sexual issues in “peacekeeping areas” ... Trump scaled back money - NATO - ASEAN (Association of Southeastern Asian Nations) - Arab League - CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization)—most members of the former Soviet bloc - OAS (Organization of American States) - OPEC—also includes Venezuela - OSCE (Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe) - SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) - IMAFT (Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism)—Sunni nations: eastern part of Middle East (Arabian area) and Northern Africa Preventing Conflict - Get the women involved—female economic empowerment - National ownership - National political commitment - National leadership

GEO | 2034 | Geography of Global Conflict | lecture notes | 1 Daniel T. Eisert GEOG-2034 1

1 Daniel T. Eisert GEOG-2034 7 – Failed States GEOG-2034: Geography of Global Conflict October 15, 2019 (Week 8) Class Business Current event due next week. Project work next week during class. Failed States Failed states can have worldwide impacts. - Refugees - Trade/economic effects  Examples : (Western Hemisphere) Venezuela, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Iraq (post-Iraq War) - 1% of Guatemala’s population has left for the United States Iraq Post-Iraq War - U.S. had defeated the military. - Government fired all military, police force who were part of Baaf political party. - But people joined the Baaf party for job opportunities, not to join the actual movement. People were fired for supporting the ‘wrong’ group. - Government couldn’t keep everything under control. - Now, problems with Baathists , A-Q, criminals fighting the U.S. Military. - Crime sparked tremendously. People were looting stuff from Mesopotamia on the black market. U.S. tanks began to guard it. - Grand theft auto—selling cars to Syria  financing operations for A-Q, Baathists for building up. - Kidnapping also became a big problem. In 2006, France paid $15 million for 3 people. Italy paid $_?_M. Germany paid $10M + $6M - The U.S. didn’t do any of this… the United States does not negotiate for terrorists , so people didn’t kidnap Americans so much. - Looting of national treasure - Millions of dollars were stolen from banks - Oil was being stolen - U.S. CIA helped allies find their citizens - Infrastructure issues - Most government application asked you whether you were a Sunni, Shia, or Kurd except the intelligence  very corrupt government - Outlier: Northern Iraq was much better (Kurds live there). Southern Iraq (Bagdad area) was much worse and unsafe. - Abu Musab Al Zarqawi was the Founder of AQ in Iraq o Started attacking Iraqi citizens (fellow Sunnis) o U.S. went into Iraq requesting to help protect the Iraqi people. U.S. put a lot of support into the Sunni tribes against A-Q. The Sunni tribes successfully defeated A-Q in that area a few months later. - Iraq had been under sanctions for a long time following the Gulf War because of their weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, biological). Iraqi government committed criminal acts to get what they needed to undertake the actions against the sanctions. - U.S. was trying to get Iraq to rebuild the government we had collapsed and create a better civil society . - Problem: 60% Shia Arab, 20% Sunni Arab, 17% Sunni Kurd, 3% Other

GEO | 2034 | Geography of Global Conflict | lecture notes | 1 Daniel T. Eisert GEOG-2034 7

1 Daniel T. Eisert GEOG-2034 (they had to fly over Saudi airspace), but the Saudis hate Iraq more than Israel. Syria had help from North Korea, and they were violated TONS of treaties. Israel exploded it. In order to hide it, Syria cleaned up the area, replaced the ground, and put a massive concrete slab with a warehouse on top. - Obama had an executive agreement (JCPOA) between the Obama Administration and Iran, which is why Trump was so easily to disregard it. Many E.U. countries were involved, but Israel was not. Additionally, it could be up to 60 days to perform any inspections. Billions were given to Tehran and all of the terrorists received influxes of arms. Arab ‘NATO’ to Counter Iran - Saudi Arabia is the leader of the Sunni world. Iran is the leader of the Shi’ite world. - When the civil war in Yemen started up and Iran started attacking Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan are fighting the Iranian-supported rebels in Yemen. - Inflation is sky high in Iran, especially as Trump has reinstated sanctions. Iran’s economy has slumped. North Korea North Korea has 450 miles of paved road out of 15,900 miles. The trains cannot carry their capacity since there isn’t enough electricity to carry it over the mountain at full capacity. There are no tractors or animals to harvest food. After the army harvests the food, the citizens get to glean any leftovers. They do, however, have the largest standing army in the world. Nuclear weapons??? Nobody truly knows. Something they do and others don’t. Some think they have the capabilities to make them and others don’t. North Korea has “propaganda-towns” along the DMZ. They are all just fake buildings with propaganda blasting all day. South Koreans will help any North Korean defector and help bring them up to speed with society. 1968 – North Korea captured an American intelligence ship. Several more aggressive acts have occurred; South Korea never retaliated in fear of a war. 2001 – South Korea’s biggest fear: North Korea collapsing. It would take so much work to help out the massive wave of new people and built up North Korea (culture shock: North Koreans know nothing about the outside world). South Korea has closely studied the fall of the Berlin Wall. It took decades for East Germany to be on-par with West Germany. Kim il-Sung—“The Great Leader” died in 1994. Then Kim Jong-il through 2011 and currently Kim Jong-un. Each commander has had to be tough showing that they can keep control of their country against military coups during transitions. China is supposedly an ally to North Korea; however, any North Korean defectors

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